Google+ is facing a population Explosion,with estimations and research showing its user reaching to 10 millions today.
A statistical analysis by paul allen,founder of ancestory.com shows that Google+ user base already reached about 7.3 million on 10 July,2011.If the Search giant keeps it invite button active as it is since this sunday,then its user base will surely be crossing 20 million in the coming weekend,he said in a google+ post late monday night.
Google+ started with a small group of tech enthusiasts,and it slowly expanded allowing the users to send invitation to their friends.The invitations were rare.Google even disabled invitaions for a day or two.But the current growth in user base is fueled by relativily easy availability of Google+ invitations
.Allen isn’t the only one impressed with the google growth.
“I predict that Google+ will go from 0 to 100,000,000 users faster than any other service in history,” said Bill Gross, founder and CEO of technology incubator Idealab, in a Google+ post yesterday. His reasons:
- The service is great. It is timely. People are engaging with it like crazy. There are rumors that there are already 4.5m people. That might be high. It might be as low as 1m, or even lower, but my guess is that it’s more than 1m people already. That already is probably the fastest growing service (0 to 1m) ever. Now it’s not completely fair, since when Facebook started, and when Twitter started, etc. those were tiny companies, and Google is huge. However, the product is extremely well executed, and a lot of people are smitten.
- The next year will tell. Will there be bumps in the road? Sure. Will Facebook and Twitter fight back with more innovation? Of course! But I’m saying that Google+ is already good enough, and the team on Google+ is being so responsive in a way that makes me believe they have a real winner here.
To estimate Google+’s population, Allen tracks surnames that appear on the site. Here’s how he describes his methodology
My model is simple. I start with US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates. My ratio is 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven’t updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time.
He’s working on updates to his approach, too. At some point, though, it’ll likely be made obsolete by Google itself, when the company concludes the time is right to trumpet its success.